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dc.contributor.authorEssl, F.en
dc.contributor.authorLenzner, B.en
dc.contributor.authorBacher, S.en
dc.contributor.authorBailey, Sarahen
dc.contributor.authorCapinha, C.en
dc.contributor.authorDaehler, C.en
dc.contributor.authorDullinger, S.en
dc.contributor.authorGenovesi, P.en
dc.contributor.authorHui, Cangen
dc.contributor.authorHulme, Philip E.en
dc.contributor.authorJeschke, J. M.en
dc.contributor.authorKatsanevakis, S.en
dc.contributor.authorKühn, I.en
dc.contributor.authorLeung, B.en
dc.contributor.authorLiebhold, A.en
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Chunlongen
dc.contributor.authorMacIsaac, H. J.en
dc.contributor.authorMeyerson, L. A.en
dc.contributor.authorNuñez, M. A.en
dc.contributor.authorPauchard, A.en
dc.contributor.authorPyšek, P.en
dc.contributor.authorRabitsch, W.en
dc.contributor.authorRichardson, D. M.en
dc.contributor.authorRoy, H. E.en
dc.contributor.authorRuiz, G. M.en
dc.contributor.authorRussell, J. C.en
dc.contributor.authorSanders, N. J.en
dc.contributor.authorSax, D. F.en
dc.contributor.authorScalera, R.en
dc.contributor.authorSeebens, H.en
dc.contributor.authorSpringborn, M.en
dc.contributor.authorTurbelin, A.en
dc.contributor.authorvan Kleunen, M.en
dc.contributor.authorvon Holle, B.en
dc.contributor.authorWinter, M.en
dc.contributor.authorZenni, R. D.en
dc.contributor.authorMattsson, B. J.en
dc.contributor.authorRoura-Pascual, N.en
dc.date.accessioned2020-09-28T21:32:15Z
dc.date.available2020-07-14en
dc.date.issued2020-09en
dc.date.submitted2020-05-18en
dc.identifier.issn1354-1013en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10182/12830
dc.description.abstractUnderstanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio-economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.en
dc.format.extent4880-4893en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherWileyen
dc.relationThe original publication is available from - Wiley - https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15199en
dc.relation.urihttps://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15199en
dc.rights© 2020 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.en
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectbiological invasionsen
dc.subjectexpert surveyen
dc.subjectglobalizationen
dc.subjectimpactsen
dc.subjectmanagementen
dc.subjectpolicyen
dc.subjectscenariosen
dc.subjectuncertaintiesen
dc.subjectEcologyen
dc.subject.meshBiodiversityen
dc.subject.meshClimate Changeen
dc.subject.meshEcosystemen
dc.subject.meshForecastingen
dc.subject.meshHumansen
dc.subject.meshIntroduced Speciesen
dc.titleDrivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessmenten
dc.typeJournal Article
lu.contributor.unitLincoln Universityen
lu.contributor.unitBio-Protection Research Centreen
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/gcb.15199en
dc.subject.anzsrc100202 Biological Controlen
dc.subject.anzsrc050202 Conservation and Biodiversityen
dc.subject.anzsrc050103 Invasive Species Ecologyen
dc.subject.anzsrc05 Environmental Sciencesen
dc.subject.anzsrc06 Biological Sciencesen
dc.relation.isPartOfGlobal Change Biologyen
pubs.issue9en
pubs.organisational-group/LU
pubs.organisational-group/LU/BPRC
pubs.organisational-group/LU/Research Management Office
pubs.organisational-group/LU/Research Management Office/PE20
pubs.organisational-group/LU/Research Management Office/QE18
pubs.publication-statusPublisheden
pubs.volume26en
dc.identifier.eissn1365-2486en
dc.rights.licenceAttributionen
dc.rights.licenceAttributionen
lu.identifier.orcid0000-0001-5712-0474


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