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dc.contributor.authorAryal, Jagannathen
dc.contributor.authorKulasiri, Gamalathge D.en
dc.contributor.authorCarnaby, G.en
dc.contributor.authorSamarasinghe, Sandhyaen
dc.date.accessioned2011-05-06T02:06:29Z
dc.date.issued2009-07en
dc.identifier.isbn978-0-9758400-7-8en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10182/3516
dc.description.abstractThe price of the New Zealand wool clip has steadily decreased over the years and the incumbent practitioners are looking for ways to increase the price. The price of the wool is determined by the marketing approaches that are adopted. An auction system is one of the wool marketing approaches and a total of 45% of the New Zealand wool clip is traded via auction (WIN, 2007).This auction is the English open out-cry public auction which has been running for the last 150 years in New Zealand. The key players of the auction (buyers, brokers and growers) as well as the New Zealand government are trying to understand the reasons behind the steady decrease in the price of the New Zealand wool clip. Further, the incumbent practitioners are questioning the auction system and looking for alternative ways of wool marketing. In this study, an attempt is made to model auction data. The data is available from the only auction centre in the South Island of New Zealand in Christchurch. Analytical approaches are used in developing the models from the data. Before fitting the data into the models, the database is thoroughly cleaned and a necessary and sufficient set of the parameters is produced by developing the approximation equations. The probability distributions of the parameters in the data base are observed. Best fitted distributions for all physical parameters are observed in terms of three measures namely mean square error, the chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit hypothesis tests. The cleaned database is used in the models. The models are developed to predict the price of the different types of wool. The price from the auction centre and the predicted price are compared. The models based on linear regression analysis, multiple regression analysis and principal component analysis are developed. The developed regression models are tested for the goodness-of-fit against coefficient of determination, R² , which describes the proportion of variability in the data set accounted for by the model. The model from the principal component analysis is used for the possible dimensionality reduction in the data set. The developed models and the physical parameters of wool are discussed. The role of physical parameters that account for the price of wool in the auction system is investigated. It is hoped that the analysis of auction database and the developed models will help the practitioners of the New Zealand wool industry in better understanding the role of physical parameters of wool and the price formation of it.en
dc.format.extent727-733en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherModelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand and International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation.en
dc.relationThe original publication is available from - Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand and International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation. - http://mssanz.org.au/modsim09en
dc.rightsCopyright © The Authors. The responsibility for the contents of this paper rests upon the authors and not on the Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc.en
dc.source18th World IMACS/MODSIM 09 Congressen
dc.subjectopen out-cry English auctionen
dc.subjectNew Zealand wool clipen
dc.subjectphysical parametersen
dc.subjectregression analysisen
dc.subjectprincipal component analysisen
dc.titleInvestigating the price of the New Zealand wool clip using modelling approachesen
dc.typeConference Contribution - Published
lu.contributor.unitLincoln Universityen
lu.contributor.unitFaculty of Agriculture and Life Sciencesen
lu.contributor.unitDepartment of Wine, Food and Molecular Biosciencesen
lu.contributor.unitFaculty of Environment, Society and Designen
lu.contributor.unitDepartment of Environmental Managementen
pubs.finish-date2009-07-17en
pubs.notesPaper presented at the 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Cairns, Australia, 13–17 July 2009.en
pubs.organisational-group/LU
pubs.organisational-group/LU/Agriculture and Life Sciences
pubs.organisational-group/LU/Agriculture and Life Sciences/WFMB
pubs.organisational-group/LU/Faculty of Environment, Society and Design
pubs.organisational-group/LU/Faculty of Environment, Society and Design/DEM
pubs.organisational-group/LU/Research Management Office
pubs.organisational-group/LU/Research Management Office/QE18
pubs.publication-statusPublisheden
pubs.publisher-urlhttp://mssanz.org.au/modsim09en
pubs.start-date2009-07-13en
lu.identifier.orcid0000-0003-2943-4331
lu.identifier.orcid0000-0001-8744-1578
lu.subtypeConference Paperen


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