Multiple crop models projection of wheat production under future climate change scenarios in the Guanzhong Plain, China

Abstract

Climate change can have negative implications on the food security of a region. The current study assesses the impact of climate change on winter wheat crop in Guanzhong Plain, China. The downscaled ensemble projections of 17 general circulation models (GCMs), under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5), were used as input into the calibrated APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) and CERES (Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis)-Wheat models. Three types of future simulation were carried out representing no adaptation, elevated CO₂, and irrigation adaptation for decades between 2020-2080. No adaptation showed a 4.6-30% decrease in winter wheat yield compared to baseline yield. Under elevated CO₂ (380 ppm-886 ppm), yield was increased by 0.95-10%, and under irrigation adaptation (180 mm-380 mm irrigation over the growing season), yield increased by 5.6-25.5%. On an average water use efficiency (WUE) with irrigation adaptation strategies and elevated CO₂ concentration was improved by 26.5% relative to baseline WUE during 2020-2080. When CO₂ concentration reached about 530 ppm, the WUE improved by 50% with third irrigation strategy relative to the baseline conditions. It is thus, concluded that based on predicted average yield with the combination of crop modeling, GCM, and RCP data, wheat production in the Guanzhong Plain can be improved in future climate change if irrigation adaptation strategies are adopted in this region.