The economic impacts of climate change on Canterbury dairy farms

Abstract

Dairy farming has grown dramatically recently in the Canterbury region of New Zealand's South Island, resulting in elevated land values. Dairying's success is the result of a combination of favourable environmental conditions, including climate. To assess impacts on Canterbury dairy farming of climate change, IPCC climate scenarios are implemented using the simulation model DairyMod. Climate change affects milk production, farm profitability, methane emissions, and carbon dioxide emissions. Changes in irrigation, fertiliser application, and stocking rates under different climate scenarios mitigate, but do not eliminate, effects of climate change. Results provide important insights for farm management strategies and policies for sustainable economic development in Canterbury.