The impacts of changes in agricultural policies in the United Kingdom on trade and agriculture – A literature review

Abstract

This report reviewed existing literature of potential impacts of different scenarios of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU) on 31st of October 2019. Several studies have assessed the potential effects of the UK exiting the EU on the UK agricultural sector using various scenarios and assumptions around different types of potential trade agreements between the EU and the UK. The UK’s exit from the EU will have a range of implications for these two regions and other countries worldwide. The nature and extent of its impacts will be determined by the terms under which the UK exits, hence the impact of Brexit is yet unknown. The limitation of trade with the EU due to higher trade barriers will likely benefit UK producers in the agricultural sector, however these benefits will come at a cost to consumers as they will face higher prices and rising food budgets. Conversely unilateral trade liberalisation would benefit consumers while reducing producer returns. The exact impacts on agricultural will be contingent on the setting of the agricultural policy in place of CAP in the UK.