Understanding New Zealand’s changing vehicle travel patterns

Abstract

In recent years New Zealand has seen a changing trend in its vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) per capita, which has generally trended downward. This is part of a global trend occuring across a number of western countries, but explanations for this trend remain contentious. There is very little research examining New Zealand’s VKT per capita trend, or seeking to explain it. This research will use multiple linear regressions to examine how New Zealand’s VKT per capita trend compares to a variety of economic, spatial, and social trends that have been identified in the literature as having possible explanatory power. This research found that in New Zealand’s case, economic indicators were most closely correlated with VKT per capita trends, especially the unemployment rate and retail price for petrol. However, given the short timeframe that the data could represent these conclusions must be treated with a degree of caution. More research may be useful to further vaildate this project’s findings.