From Nairobi to confidence building measures in Geneva

Abstract

The major developed economies, whatever they may say in public about it, have by now lost interest in pursuing the WTO Round (aka the Doha Development Agenda (DDA)) in its present form anymore.

It is perhaps less clear with developing countries. Certainly a very large number at least say that they are committed to it and still want it to proceed. Is that serious or tactical?

It makes little practical difference, because the major developed economies at least have moved on.

Primarily to bilateral or regional free trade agreements. Secondarily to plurilateral agreements. The two so-called mega-regionals (TPP and TTIP, not forgetting the Japan-EU FTA) represent a qualitative and a quantitative shift in that regard.

This is a situation that is a million miles away from the situation at the commencement of Doha. It is a million miles away even from the situation that prevailed at the decisive breakdown of the DDA in 2008.

Up to that point, the only real negotiating forum for the three to negotiate trade with each other was the WTO. It had always been like that.

That is over.