Seasonality and cycles in tourism demand—redux

Abstract

Analyzing tourism demand cycles is of strong interest to researchers and forecasters. However, often the preponderance of seasonality encumbers the derivation of cycles that are free of seasonal patterns. Using recent advances in time-series econometrics, we offer a solution. We employ two methods that produce cycles that are robust to seasonal properties of the data; cycles from seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data are virtually indistinguishable.