Simulation investigation of the sociological consequences of resource management policies on the West Coast of New Zealand

Abstract

At the request of the Town and Country Planning Division, Ministry of Works and Development, a dynamic simulation model of the West Coast regional system is developed to assist in the formulation of resource management policies.

The nature of dynamic simulation models is discussed, and the phases of development described, first in general, and then in relation to the West Coast model. A single sector model is developed to the stage of calibration and then disaggregated into four industry sectors, with emphasis on the forestry industry. A sensitivity analysis is carried out on the disaggregated model.

The methods and techniques used in model development are discussed, and possibilities for future development are considered. Finally the suitability of the method for consideration of regional planning problems is considered, with reference to other working system dynamics models.

Several stages of model development are illustrated with flow diagrams, model output and equation listings in figures and appendices.