Tracking synthetic cohorts to investigate historic ability to acquire housing tenure of choice within Auckland's North Shore suburbs: A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Property Studies

Abstract

Much of what is discussed in popular literature in regard to housing affordability is based on a premise built from indices. Indices, by their very nature, only capture discrete elements from a range of recently historical events. This limitation of data capture also limits indices' usefulness when applied against, in this case, actual households and families. A paper presented in 2003 by this writer used indices to provide commentary on a small and unique tenant cohort; Navy personnel. This study was criticized for not reviewing a longer time series. In an effort to rectify this deficiency, this dissertation uses synthetic cohorts to track and manipulate the possibilities of various households to afford a median priced house on the North Shore Auckland between 1955 and 2005. The results are also applicable to the wider 'civilian' community with similar salary construction as the cohort under study. Throughout the dissertation commentary has been applied to the definition of affordability and an alternative is proposed. In addition, the limitations of indices with respect to measuring housing affordability are discussed and it is suggested that this paper's less practical but arguably deeper process, be more widely used in lieu of the standardized index response.