The demographic dividend and sustainability

Abstract

Under mid-range projections, Africa’s population is expected to double from 1.2 billion to 2.4 billion by 2050, reaching 4.2 billion by 2100. This will have serious consequences for the environment, poverty and civil conflict. Nevertheless, aid agencies express confidence in demographic trends, placing faith in a ‘demographic dividend’. This optimism is based on East Asian nations that experienced a demographic dividend during their development in the mid-late twentieth century. However, this paper compares the current situation in Africa with that which existed when the Asian nations experienced their rise, and finds the two are in very different situations. There is also little consideration given to environment effects. Past policies have been enacted with the effect of increasing population with insufficient consideration for environmental limits. This paper argues that failure to consider the population issue is a major contributor to the mixed results that aid agencies are achieving