A simulation study of out of season lamb production

Abstract

The purpose of this investigation was to study financial and physical implications to producers of selected management strategies that alter the pattern of livestock flow from the farm. To perform the study, a simulation model was constructed that incorporated economic, biological and managerial components. The analysis involved a comparison of a conventional Canterbury dryland prime lamb production system with two split flock systems that had differing proportions of the breeding flock lambing in autumn. Management variables included in the analysis were minimum drafting weight at which lambs could be sold and stocking rate. The selected management variables were each represented at three levels to form a 3 * 3 * 3 factorial. Results from the analysis indicated that farm production and profitability tended to increase over the range of tested stocking rates and drafting weights and that farm profits declined as the proportion of the ewe flock lambing in autumn increased. It was concluded that on the basis of currently available financial data that out of season lamb production is less profitable than conventional systems. There are compelling economic reasons for the meat industry to encourage farmers to reduce the seasonality with which lambs are supplied for slaughter. However, until farmers capture adequate benefits to make the necessary long term changes to their management systems, it is unlikely that out of season lamb production will become a significant feature of New Zealand agriculture.