Multiple criteria decision making in resource management : an examination of some methods for the analysis of decision problems in the context of some resource management issues

Abstract

The methods of multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) are techniques for the analysis of decision problems for which several criteria (or objectives) are relevant, as against those problems for which only one objective is important. These methods are predominantly mathematical tools which require quantitative data, although there are some which require only qualitative information. Discrete MCDM methods are used for the problem of selecting between alternative plans or courses of action, and multiple-objective programming methods are used to develop computer models of the system being planned for which can be used to generate and evaluate good plans.

MCDM methods have been used overseas in resource management issues, and the question of whether these methods would be of utility in planning and decision-making for some New Zealand resource issues is examined in this report. MCDM methods may assist resource managers in dealing with the complexities of the issues they face. Some issues of the Rakaia River and catchment are examined, for illustrative purposes, including the allocation of flow between in-stream and out-of-stream uses, the design of irrigation schemes, the evaluation of H.E.P. development options, land-use in the upper catchment, and the management of Lake Heron. MCDM methods are found to be of only very limited utility in the first two of these issues, because of the lack of quantitative data on the effects of abstractions on in-stream values and because of the importance of the dynamics of the river and irrigation systems. However, multiple-objective programming is of some potential utility in land-use planning in the high country. A "soft" discrete MCDM method is applied, for illustrative purposes to the problem of selecting between management options for Lake Heron, and this approach may be quite widely useful.

MCDM methods cannot be used to find answers to complex resource planning problems which are necessarily socially optimal, because they require the explicit making of value judgements; however such value judgements are always implicitly made in public-sector decisions. However MCDM methods are, in some circumstances, useful aids to decision making and planning on complex issues. Perhaps the principal benefit of the use of such methods is that they can facilitate the development of innovative and creative plans.