Electricity forecasting in New Zealand

Abstract

Planning decisions which determine the future development of New Zealand's resources are made on the basis of electricity consumption forecasts. The historical origins of the supply oriented nature of electricity planning in New Zealand are traced. The role of forecasting in electricity planning is examined and the validity of current forecasting practices is questioned. It is found that these practices tend to prescribe rather than predict future consumption. The present approach is found to be inadequate in the extent to which it fulfils the government's stated energy planning policies. It is suggested that a demand oriented approach incorporating forecasting methods which are not prescriptive would be a suitable alternative.