Development of an integrated framework for environmental decision making

Abstract

This thesis describes a new framework developed to assist decision makers in making multi related and multi-dimensional environmental decision making. This involves a set of feasible alternative management systems (landuses) that are evaluated on the basis of multiple, conflicting and noncommensurate criteria by groups of individuals. The decision framework developed provides the platform for structuring and solving the decision problem and determining the 'best' landuse alternative that is most acceptable to everybody involved.

As a systematic method, the framework can change the decision of a complicated problem into a structured model and a simple mathematical calculation. By using the framework, judgements and analysis are made in a hierarchy that is easier to understand than the original complicated and complex problem. To ensure consistency of the judgement process, the framework provides a method that makes it possible to make amendments at any time.

Through the use of this framework developed with the Analytic Hierarchy Process, qualitative and subjective values as well as quantitative values can be incorporated into the decision making process and synthesised to yield the 'best' solution.

Three component groups or players are involved in the decision making process. Firstly, the LII group which consists of people living and working in the LII catchment. They are predominantly farmers and their primary concern is with yields or monetary returns. The second group is the Planners. They are the administrators for this part of the country and by virtue of their positions are the 'law' enforcers i.e. making sure that the laws and regulations are adhered to in a landuse change. Finally, we have the Maori as the third group. They exercise rights granted to the indigenous people by the Treaty of Waitangi. They are concerned primarily with the aesthetic (spiritual) and physical aspects of food gathering activity. The interests of the three groups are hence diverse and conflictual in nature, each with its own criteria, opinions, views and value systems. The decision makers have to take all these into consideration, incorporate and synthesize them into the decision-making process so that an optimum solution is achieved and unproductive conflicts can be minimised if not avoided altogether.

For the Planners to be able to objectively evaluate pollutants arising from changes in landuse, a pollution model, Agricultural NonPoint Source (AGNPS) was used. This 'scientific' evidence was incorporated in the decision making process.

The decision framework provides a measure of inconsistency so that pairwise comparison values can be revised. Sensitivity studies are done at each stage of the decision making process to determine the robustness of a solution and to introduce transparency into the decision making. The framework will enable both the decision-makers and people at large to understand how a decision was arrived at.