Causality and cointegration of stock markets within the Asian growth triangle

Abstract

This paper explores the co-integration and causality relationships amongst the Asian Triangle stock exchange indices. These Asian triangle regions consists of the eight key markets of Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, Korea, and Indonesia. In applying modern unit root and co-integration econometric techniques that will allow for structural breaks over our sample period of data (October 2002 to August 2018), we found that there is no co-integration within these markets except for that between Shenzhen and Shanghai. By using Granger causality tests, Johansen, and impulse response functions, we will show that stock price changes in Hong Kong have more impact on Asian triangle markets than that of any other market. More specifically, price changes in the Philippines market can be used to gauge the succeeding movement of the other Asian markets excluding Shenzhen and Shanghai. We develop various potential and current relationships within these markets that would lead one to further empirical research. Our overall finding was that Hong Kong being the epicenter still plays an important role in assisting and motivating emerging markets as shown through our impulse response testing and would therefore not yet rule out the importance of developed economies.