Applying systems thinking and modelling to pro-poor upgrading of the pork value chain in Tanintharyi, Myanmar

Abstract

Interventions seeking to upgrade farmers within agri-food value chains benefit from tools that consider the dynamic and complex nature of the chain while allowing for trade off analysis to strengthen pro-poor decision-making. This research used systems thinking and participatory spatial group model building methods to develop a system dynamics model of the pork value chain in two townships in southern Myanmar. The model integrated modules of animal production, marketing, investment, finances, and collective action. Scenario analysis with the model guided the selection of pro-poor upgrading activities for implementation within a five-year development project. Results highlighted that investments in novel producer institutional arrangements brought sustained financial benefits to target communities and outperformed short-term gains focused on individual producers. The model also shows a well-sequenced multipronged approach of microcredit, animal health workers, and training enabled poorer households to benefit from pig livelihoods while also reducing risks from environmental and economic shocks.