An analysis of the world sheepmeat market : implications for policy

Abstract

Notable structural changes have taken place in the world sheepmeat market over the 1960-80 period. Imports into the major consuming countries of the EEC are declining as a result of changing tastes, higher import barriers and other factors. World exports have steadily increased however, and sales diversified into a number of alternative, expanding markets. Little quantitative information exists on these markets. An econometric model was constructed to analyse the changes on a global basis. The model covers production, consumption and trade in the main importing and exporting regions over a twenty one year period. These components form a dynamic, simultaneous system which solves for the world price. It allows the impact of changes in any particular market to be evaluated in terms of the effect on other markets and international prices. Simulation analysis is employed to test the effects of various shocks to the market, and to evaluate the impacts of certain policy changes, such as those recently implemented in the EEC. The changes are assessed against a Base simulation, which also provides a forecast of the market situation through the 1980's. From the conclusions various policy implications are drawn with respect to NZ's exports.