A regional planning model for Southland County agriculture

Abstract

The objective of this study is to develop and test a model of Southland County agriculture which can be used as a base to estimate changes in county product output and net profitability as a result of changes in land use. Land use changes may arise because of decisions by individual farmers or as the result of alternative government policies and programmes.

The model developed is based on the linear programming technique. It is used to generate a pattern of agricultural activity and output which would be expected through the application of average management skills and technology. (In passing, it is noted that the generated pattern results in a county output higher than actual present output suggesting that output normally expected is not actually being achieved by the average farmer.) The major use of the model is to estimate changes in product supply and net profitability due to new production activities. The effect of these changes on variation in net county profit and increases or decreases in demand for agricultural and processing labour is assessed.

Stock production dominates the agriculture of the area. Farmer reaction to uncertain climatic conditions at harvest holds the levels of cereal crops well below those feasible in soil husbandry terms.

Evaluation of new production activities indicates that growing of lucerne on the Waimea Plains and establishment of farm forestry blocks on extensive hill-country areas should be further investigated. Decreases in labour demand suggest process crops may not be as beneficial as lucerne and forestry from a Regional Development point of view.

Model reliability tests indicate a good level of precision has been achieved in establishing the basic agricultural product mix of the area.

Finally, it is concluded that mathematical programming models do have a useful role in multiproduct agricultural planning. Some areas for future research are suggested.