Forecasting climate change at Lincoln College, Canterbury, New Zealand

Abstract

Sunshine, rainfall, temperature and wind direction data from Lincoln College were analysed for trends and cycles that could be used for long term seasonal forecasting. The same data was used to characterise the "signature" left in the climatic record by an El Nino/Southern Oscillation event. Significant changes, some apparently cyclic, in these climatic variables were found to have occurred over the last 140 years. There have been particularly marked and regular changes in the frequency of winds from different directions. The significance of this climatically and for forecasting is discussed. Forecasts for rainfall, temperature, sunshine and wind direction are given and discussed both for their regional and national significance. A theory of the mechanism for the observed climatic change in the Lincoln region is proposed, along with suggestions for further work.