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    Risk analysis in project evaluation incorporating adaptive behaviour

    M'tonga, R. S.
    Abstract
    This thesis presents a method of representing the outcome of a project using Monte Carlo simulation which incorporates adaptive behaviour. The uncertain variables of which the project's cash flow is a function are represented by temporary and permanent effects. These effects are blended together through a learning curve model. A comparison is made between an adaptable and a non-adaptable simulation to show the effect of adaptable project execution on the expected value, variance, and probability distribution of the equivalent annual return.
    Keywords
    project evaluation; risk analysis; adaptability; learning curve; simulation; maize; loan repayment; debts; computer program; decision making; risk and uncertainty
    Fields of Research
    140302 Econometric and Statistical Methods; 140201 Agricultural Economics; 150205 Investment and Risk Management
    Date
    1983
    Type
    Thesis
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    Digital thesis can be viewed by current staff and students of Lincoln University only. If you are the author of this item, please contact us if you wish to discuss making the full text publicly available.
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