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    The matrix of drivers: 2022 update
    (AERU, Lincoln University | Te Whare Wānaka o Aoraki, 2022-05) Driver, Tim; Duff, S; McIntyre, Tiffany; Saunders, Caroline
    Enhancing primary sector production and productivity while maintaining and improving our land and water quality for future generations is a key outcome of the National Science Challenge for Our Land and Water. It is therefore important to identify the hierarchy of international and national issues in order to provide an evidence base to guide investment and inform the Challenge Research Strategy. To this end, it was proposed that a small project be conducted, and regularly updated. This project aims to deliver an overview of international and domestic drivers, as well as issues that are of particular relevance to the New Zealand primary sector and land use. This overview is based on a literature search of the most important issues, followed by a survey of key stakeholders as to their opinion of the most important issues affecting New Zealand land use and land use practice from overseas and domestically. In addition, a review of the level of interest and concern of international consumers on various issues is produced relevant to the primary sector. This is the fourth report in this series and provides an updated understanding of the international and national drivers and issues of land use change/practice, and their importance to the primary sector. These drivers will help prioritise where investments in primary sector research based on their relationship to economic growth, social, cultural and environmental interactions. Updates of this research will allow us to understand how drivers and issues change, which will help to assess the impact the Challenge has had as well as future research investment needs. This work also provides a contribution to the Challenge Strategy. This report is structured as follows: Chapter 1 provides an introduction to this report and its wider context; Chapter 2 presents the results of a survey of primary sector stakeholders regarding their views of the importance of key international and domestic drivers of land use change/practice; Chapter 3 examines future trends and challenges related to land use change/practice (particularly within a New Zealand context); and Chapter 4 concludes the report and provides a summary of its findings.
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    Emissions targets of New Zealand's agricultural export competitors – a literature review
    (AERU, Lincoln University | Te Whare Wānaka o Aoraki, 2022-04) Guenther, Meike; Saunders, John; Driver, Tim
    This literature review forms the initial assessment of a trade modelling exercise to examine changes in New Zealand and global livestock emissions, given the implementation of carbon pricing in New Zealand. The modelling will also examine the effects of international action on agricultural emissions reductions from New Zealand’s main export competitors.
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    (Cambridge University Press on behalf of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2023) Lawrence, J; Mackey, B; Chiew, F; Costello, MJ; Hennessey, K; Lansbury, N; Nidumolu, UB; Pecl, G; Rickards, L; Tapper, N; Woodward, A; Wreford, Anita; Alexandra, J; Ausseil, A-G; Awatere, S; Bardsley, D; Bell, R; Blackett, P; Boulter, S; Collins, D; Cradock-Henry, N; Creamer, S; Darbyshire, R; Dean, S; Di Luca, A; Dowdy, A; Fountain, Joanna; Grose, M; Hajkowicz, S; Hall, D; Harris, S; Hayman, P; Hodgkinson, J; Hussey, K; Jones, R; King, D; Linnenluecke, M; Livengood, E; Livingston, M; Macinnis-Ng, C; McFadgen, B; McMichael, C; Milfont, T; Moggridge, B; Monks, A; Morrison, S; Mosby, V; Onyango, E; Paddam, S; Pearce, G; Pearce, P; Ranasinghe, R; Schoeman, D; Tomlinson, R; Walker, S; Watt, M; Westra, S; Wise, R; Zammit, C; Pörtner, H-O; Roberts, DC; Tignor, M; Poloczanska, ES; Mintenbeck, K; Alegría, A; Craig, M; Langsdorf, S; Löschke, S; Möller, V; Okem, A; Rama, B; Hoegh-Guldberg, O; Wratt, D
    Observed changes and impacts Ongoing climate trends have exacerbated many extreme events (very high confidence). The Australian trends include further warming and sea level rise sea level rise (SLR), with more hot days and heatwaves, less snow, more rainfall in the north, less April–October rainfall in the southwest and southeast and more extreme fire weather days in the south and east. The New Zealand trends include further warming and sea level rise (SLR), more hot days and heatwaves, less snow, more rainfall in the south, less rainfall in the north and more extreme fire weather in the east. There have been fewer tropical cyclones and cold days in the region. Extreme events include Australia’s hottest and driest year in 2019 with a record-breaking number of days over 39°C, New Zealand’s hottest year in 2016, three widespread marine heatwaves during 2016–2020, Category 4 Cyclone Debbie in 2017, seven major hailstorms over eastern Australia and two over New Zealand from 2014–2020, three major floods in eastern Australia and three over New Zealand during 2019–2021 and major fires in southern and eastern Australia during 2019–2020.
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    How much less? Estimating price discounts for suboptimal food with environmental and social credence attributes
    (Taylor & Francis, 2023-02-12) Tait, Peter; Saunders, Caroline; Dalziel, Paul; Rutherford, Paul; Driver, Tim; Guenther, Meike
    Price discounting strategies for suboptimal food perform an essential part in reducing food waste. This study provides new information empirically estimating discounts for levels of apple injury and deformity consistent with United States Department of Agriculture definitions using a Discrete Choice Experiment with Californian consumers. Latent Class Modelling identifies consumer segments with differing preferences for injury and deformity, alongside social responsibility and environmental claims. While discounts range substantially across segments, levels of deformity negatively influence choices more than equivalent levels of injury. Required discounts can be reduced by the presence of beneficial credence attributes, particularly an organic claim. We find a segment of respondents indifferent to suboptimal characteristics and requiring no discount to select suboptimal apples. These consumers have stronger preferences for environmental and social attributes, are more likely to be female, more educated, younger and concerned about genetic engineering. Preferences for social responsibility claims vary over the targeted beneficiaries, with programmes focused on workers preferred more overall. Willingness-to-pay for greenhouse gas reductions are relatively diminutive; however, 83% of the respondents support at least moderate reductions. This study contributes to understanding behaviours towards suboptimal food and is beneficial to forming food waste reduction strategies by identifying discount levels across consumer types.
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    Advancing primary sector adaptation in Aotearoa New Zealand
    (Taylor & Francis, 2023-04-19) Wreford, Anita
    Climate change is already being experienced across the primary sector in Aotearoa New Zealand. Adapting to the impacts already being observed, while also anticipating future impacts, requires consideration of different time frames as well as grounding within the farmer or grower’s own contexts. Uncertainty regarding longer-term climatic changes can present challenges for decision-making in the present time, but a growing body of analytical and practical processes can support this. Although some farmers are experimenting with different types of adaptation, more generally there is a dearth of action, particularly planning beyond the present and immediate future. Policy for monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness and lifetimes of adaptation actions is required, as well as extension services supporting farmers and growers.