Originally published:1964 as Agricultural Economics Research Unit publication (Lincoln College (University of Canterbury). Agricultural Economics Research Unit) ; no. 8 by Lincoln College. Agricultural Economics Research Unit.
The paper analyses the implications of a national annual
increase by New Zealand producers of 5% in the production
of wool compared with the present long-term rate of increase
of 3%. This, it is estimated, would change the rate of
world wool production increase from about 2.2% p.a. to
2.6% p.a. and this, it is felt, could be readily absorbed without
change in wool price provided the world production of
synthetic fibres does not increase at more than about 10%
p.a. Over the past 10 years the rate of increase in world
synthetics has slowed markedly from 60% p.a. to about 25%
p.a. in the last five years. Provided adequate volume and
price competition are provided by wool on world markets,
the annual rate of expansion of synthetics may well fall to
10% p.a., but if it fell to only 15%, it is estimated that this
would cause a wool price decline of only 1/4 d. per lb per
annum.
It is further estimated that, to preserve stability of lamb
prices in the U.K., the rate of increase of lamb exports will
have to be confined to 1 % p.a. at most.
These factors, together with the increasing demand for
mutton by eastern countries, imply, amongst other things,
the need for a rapid increase in wool production and a
change in the growth pattern of New Zealand primary production
so that less reliance is placed on increased lamb
production and more on wool and mutton.[Show full abstract]
Description:
Reprinted from Proceedings of the New Zealand Society of Animal Production, Vol. 24, 1964.
