Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorMcKinnon, Alan E.
dc.contributor.authorBell, Stephen T.
dc.contributor.authorSykes, Andrew R.
dc.date.accessioned2013-05-02T00:32:20Z
dc.date.issued2003-07
dc.identifier.citationMcKinnon, A. E., Bell, S. T. & Sykes, A. R. (2003). Using a model of magnesium dynamics in cows to predict the risk of tetany in dairy herds. In Post, D. A. (ed) MODSIM 2003 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation: Integrative Modelling of Biophysical, Social, and Economic Systems for Resource Management Solutions. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, July 2003.
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10182/5409
dc.description.abstractThe onset of tetany, when dairy cattle have insufficient magnesium, has a huge impact both economically and on animal welfare. To aid our understanding of the factors that determine magnesium status in dairy cattle, we have adapted and improved a model of magnesium dynamics in sheep. As it stands, this model is of little practical use to a dairy farmer who is primarily concerned with the status of the herd and the risk that animals will contract tetany. In this paper we describe how we have attempted to use the model to give the dairy farmer more useful information. Our approach is to calibrate the model using easily-obtained measurements such as urine and milk magnesium fluxes and then use Monte Carlo simulations in which model parameters are varied randomly according to their statistical distributions. The result of each simulation is classified as the likelihood of tetany occurring based on the value of the simulated magnesium concentration in cerebrospinal fluid. With sufficient simulations we can estimate the risk of tetany for the herd as a whole. A sensitivity measure was used to determine the extent to which each parameter contributes to tetany and hence the importance of knowing its distribution more accurately. Initial results show that our approach has potential. However, the process whereby we use measurements of urinary magnesium flux to calibrate some of the model parameters needs to be improved and a comparison of the calculated risk with actual field data needs to be carried out.en
dc.format.extent1586-1590en
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherModelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand
dc.relationThe original publication is available from - Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealanden
dc.rights© 2005 Modelling & Simulation Society of Australia & New Zealand Inc
dc.sourceMODSIM 2003 Proceedingsen
dc.subjectTetany risken
dc.subjectdairy herdsen
dc.subjectmagnesium modelen
dc.subjectMonte Carlo simulationen
dc.subjecttetany risk in dairy herdsen
dc.titleUsing a model of magnesium dynamics in cows to predict the risk of tetany in dairy herdsen
dc.typeConference Contribution - published
lu.contributor.unitLincoln University
lu.contributor.unitFaculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences
lu.contributor.unitDepartment of Agricultural Sciences
lu.contributor.unitFaculty of Environment, Society and Design
lu.contributor.unitDepartment of Environmental Management
pubs.finish-date2003-07-17en
pubs.organisational-group/LU
pubs.organisational-group/LU/Agriculture and Life Sciences
pubs.organisational-group/LU/Agriculture and Life Sciences/AGSC
pubs.organisational-group/LU/Faculty of Environment, Society and Design
pubs.organisational-group/LU/Faculty of Environment, Society and Design/DEM
pubs.publication-statusPublisheden
pubs.start-date2003-07-14en
pubs.volume4en
lu.subtypeConference Paperen


Files in this item

Default Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record