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    Opening new institutional spaces for grappling with uncertainty: a constructivist perspective

    Duncan, Ronlyn
    Abstract
    In the context of an increasing reliance on predictive computer simulation models to calculate potential project impacts, it has become common practice in impact assessment (IA) to call on proponents to disclose uncertainties in assumptions and conclusions assembled in support of a development project. Understandably, it is assumed that such disclosures lead to greater scrutiny and better policy decisions. This paper questions this assumption. Drawing on constructivist theories of knowledge and an analysis of the role of narratives in managing uncertainty, I argue that the disclosure of uncertainty can obscure as much as it reveals about the impacts of a development project. It is proposed that the opening up of institutional spaces that can facilitate the negotiation and deliberation of foundational assumptions and parameters that feed into predictive models could engender greater legitimacy and credibility for IA outcomes... [Show full abstract]
    Keywords
    Predictive simulation modeling; Uncertainty; Collaborative knowledge-making; Narrative analysis; Urban & Regional Planning
    Date
    2013-01
    Type
    Journal Article
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    • Department of Environmental Management [1134]
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    Duncan EIAR Nov 2013 submitted.pdf
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    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2012.07.004
    Metadata
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    Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
    Citation
    Duncan, R. (2013). Opening new institutional spaces for grappling with uncertainty: a constructivist perspective. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 38, 151-154. doi: 10.1016/j.eiar.2012.07.004
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