Tariff risks and stock market performance: Evidence from multivariable simultaneous quantile

Abstract

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of tariff risk measured on both daily and monthly frequencies‒on the technology and energy stock markets during the two presidential terms of Donald Trump (2017–2025). Using multivariable simultaneous quantile regression and data from 11 major economies spanning January 1, 2017 to May 30, 2025, the analysis offers new insights into how national markets differentially respond to trade policy uncertainty. Unlike previous research that primarily focuses on the U.S. or EU markets in isolation, this study takes a broader international perspective. The findings reveal that the impact of tariff risk tends to shift from negative in the lower quantiles of stock returns (poor-performing markets) to positive in the higher quantiles (strong-performing markets). This pattern suggests that trade policy uncertainty adversely affects technology and energy markets under bearish conditions but may present hedging opportunities during bullish periods. These results provide valuable implications for policymakers and investors seeking to understand the financial consequences of trade policy shocks across diverse market conditions