Overcoming data gaps in viticulture adaptation strategy development: a case study on diversification of Marlborough, Sauvignon Blanc.

Abstract

Viticulture regions and systems are often exposed to climatic hazards such as rising temperatures and extreme weather events. A lack of knowledge on the complexity surrounding climate impacts is one of the key challenges winegrowers face when adapting to climate change. Supporting winegrowers through this challenge has led to an increased interest in approaches that support decision-making under uncertainty. However, to be able to aid growers in decision making, robust data is required, and this is often a limiting factor. This paper proposes a solution to a lack of data by presenting an approach to generating yield data from a biophysical index model to inform economic analysis. The paper describes the methodological approach and presents the application of this methodology to a New Zealand case study: Sauvignon Blanc in the Marlborough wine region. This includes characterisation of the temperature function informing the index, establishing the relationship between the index and observed yield, and assessing the index performance now and in the future. This study contributes to the current body of knowledge by outlining an approach and identifying the challenges to generating biophysical outputs and subsequent economic data. During this process, the study has generated valuable insights into the potential impact of future temperature on key yield components of Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc. This will be an important component for accelerating the implementation of climate change adaptation strategies in the region