Flood risk and housing market values: A spatial analysis of Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch using geographically weighted regression

Abstract

Natural hazards have long been an important focus in property research because of their influence on housing markets. In recent years, New Zealand has faced more frequent and severe flooding events, which makes it necessary to assess their economic impacts. Understanding how flood risk affects urban housing markets is important for both policy and practice. This study will investigate the relationship between flood risk and property values in New Zealand’s three largest urban centres. It will use property sales data from 2017-2021 together with flood risk maps, applying Geographically Weighted Regression to identify local variations in how flood risk affects house prices. By analysing spatial patterns of sensitivity to flood exposure across neighbourhoods, the study will provide new insights into how property markets respond to environmental risks. The findings are expected to highlight the importance of spatially focused methods for understanding property market dynamics under climate related hazards.