Sheppard, R. L.Beun, N. J.2009-04-172009-04-171980-030110-7720https://hdl.handle.net/10182/995Japanese agricultural policy appears to revolve around two main goals; the achievement of self sufficiency in food and the provision of adequate income to farmers. In order to achieve these goals, and recognising that full self sufficiency in all products is not possible while at the same time keeping some consumer food prices at acceptable levels, the Japanese have divided their food products into two groups. The first group which includes meat and dairy products, is the area where a concerted drive for self sufficiency is taking place. The second group, which includes most cereals (except rice), is the area where lower consumer prices exist and where imports are more freely admitted. Prices of products in the first group, notably meat and dairy products, are also used to provide adequate income to farmers. As New Zealand is a major exporter of dairy products and meat, the inclusion of these products in the self sufficiency group is a matter of considerable concern to New Zealand. In order to be able to encourage the Japanese to permit more imports of meat and dairy products, it is necessary to develop a complete and detailed understanding of the policy of self sufficiency in these areas. This paper has concentrated on the real self sufficiency levels for animal feed and meat. In the animal feed area the total feed supply has been broken into cereal and non cereal categories and the real degree of self sufficiency in terms of the relationship between domestic production and total consumption has been investigated. These investigations indicate that the degree of self sufficiency in cereal feeds has averaged 10.1 per cent over 1973 to 1977 (falling from 20.6 per cent in 1973 to 2.3 per cent in 1977). The total feed self sufficiency has averaged 54.1 per cent for 1973 to 1977. It must be remembered that cereals are included in the second food group and are therefore not subject to the same pressure for self sufficiency as those in the first group. For meat, several different assessments of the self sufficiency level have been made. The first and most apparent calculation is to divide domestic production by consumption. Self sufficiency calculated by this method averaged 77.9 per cent for total meat over the period 1973 to 1977 (73.3 per cent for beef, 87.6 per cent for pork and 96.5 per cent for chicken). However, a large part of this domestically produced meat is derived from imported feed and therefore cannot be said to be independent of imports. The self sufficiency level has therefore been corrected for feed imports and the percentages then fall to 30.4 per cent for meat, 22.9 per cent for beef, 36.4 per cent for pork and 31.8 per cent for chicken. To further illustrate the dependence of meat production on imported feed, the proportion of present meat production that would be possible without feed imports has been calculated. The average proportions for 1973 to 1977 were as follows: meat 38.9 per cent, beef 29.7 per cent, pork 41.6 per cent, chicken 33.0 per cent. This rather gross correction of the self sufficiency level fails to take into account the differences in food value of the different types of product. The calculations were therefore taken a step further and the degree of meat self sufficiency in terms of total protein and total calorie supply has been assessed. Correcting for the level of protein imports (included in imported feed) resulted in an average total meat self sufficiency of 41.0 per cent (beef 56.6 per cent, pork 48.2 per cent, chicken 33.2 per cent). The correction for imported calories resulted in average meat self sufficiencies of 36.7 per cent for total meat, beef 40.3 per cent, pork 53.3 per cent and a very low self sufficiency figure for chicken. Overall, it can therefore be said that the real meat self sufficiency levels are approximately half of those indicated by dividing domestic production by consumption and are in fact around the 40 per cent level.enJapanfood policyfood consumptionfood supplyfood productionmeat industryagricultural tradeagricultural policyself sufficiencyDiscussion PaperMarsden::340201 Agricultural economicsMarsden::340206 International economics and international financeMarsden::340402 Econometric and statistical methods