The world sheepmeat market : an econometric model

Abstract

This paper reports the development of an econometric model of the world sheepmeat market. Sheepmeats are only of minor importance in the world meat trade, but New Zealand plays a major role within this market. Since the 1960's the pattern of trade has changed markedly, with a decline in the main importing market, the UK, and a diversification of exports to several new markets such as Japan, North America and the Middle East. A dynamic, non-spatial price equilibrium model was constructed in order to quantify factors causing these changes and to determine the structural relationships in the new markets. By having global coverage, account can be taken of the interactions among the markets and world prices. At the same time the model provides a simulation instrument which is used for predicting the level of trade and prices through the 1980's. The effects of various policies and market changes are assessed against a Base simulation.