A computer aided decision support system for evaluating fine wool classing options : a dissertation in partial fulfillment [sic] of the requirements for the Bachelor of Agricultural Science (Honours) degree, Lincoln University

Abstract

The correct classing of fine wools by growers is essential if the most economic returns are to be realised. For this to happen, accurate signals and advice must come clearly from the marketing channels to the farmer. Conflicting advice and research findings have confused the issue of wool classing. In the face of rising marketing costs, this situation is no longer acceptable. The aim of this study was to supplement the current advice on clip preparation with a more analytical approach. A LOTUS 1-2-3 spreadsheet was developed at Lincoln University to predict the most economic wool classing options using auction price and micron information. New Zealand Wool Board auction data was obtained by regular computer transfer. Equations were fitted to specific price/micron relationships. Advice given by the program was based on these extrapolations. The spreadsheet package called OPTIONS, was further developed by design of a routine advice system, incorporating LOTUS macrons. Evaluation of OPTIONS used a range of 15 test clips, sold at auction in 1988. It was found that in all cases the "best" classing option was to divide the clip into strong, medium and fine lines, with 30, 40 and 30 per-cent total clip proportioning respectively. The gross and net return per kilogram was shown to have been significantly better (P < 0.05), had the advice proposed by OPTIONS been adopted. The interval between classing decision making using OPTIONS and selling, had a significant effect (P < 0.05) on gross and net returns. The results indicated that the most economic classing decision for the clips studied was the adoption of a three line classing strategy. The paper concludes with suggestions for developing OPTIONS into a fully viable advisory package. Inclusion of some four line classing strategies should be done to examine their profitability. Other price influencing characteristics, such as length, colour and vegetable matter should be included into the decision framework to make advice more accurate and realistic. Further evaluation of OPTIONS using a greater range of clips, over a whole growing season should be carried out to determine whether the "advice" given is similar for all situations.