CSI Lincoln: an investigation into a declining housing market

Abstract

The residential property market in New Zealand has been experiencing a boom and bubble period from 2001 through to mid 2007. Following a number of increases in the Official Cash Rate by the Reserve Bank and a decline in net migration numbers the housing market was perceived to be over inflated and due for a major correction. Numerous media, Government Departments, property experts and economists have been predicting significant reductions in the median price of residential property throughout New Zealand. This paper will analyse house prices in specific socio-economic locations within Christchurch over the past 12 months to determine how significant the current housing decline is. This study will review the change in residential property prices, variations in property listings since April 2008, sale volumes and days on the market across a range of housing sectors to determine the extent and range of any residential property downturn in the NZ recession.