Forecasting New Zealand's lamb exports

Abstract

Since the early eighties there has been a marked change in the way New Zealand producers export lamb, in terms of the additional processing of lamb for export and the markets to which these products are sold. Most notable in this change has been the increasing importance of frozen bone in, and chilled cuts. At the same time New Zealand's traditional market has been in decline. Frozen carcass exports to the UK have fallen steadily, and access to the European Community has been increasingly restricted.

An econometric model was constructed to analyse these changes at the individual market level, in provide a medium term forecast for New Zealand lamb. The model covers production, consumption, and prices for New Zealand lamb for six lamb products in nineteen markets. These components were used in the construction of a spreadsheet model of New Zealand's lamb markets.

Medium term forecasts were obtained for each market. A constraint representing the EC lamb quota was then introduced and the forecasts recalculated. Effects of the EC lamb quota on markets outside of the European Community were obtained by comparing the results of these two forecasts.