Conservation and distribution of leopard (Panthera pardus) in northern Pakistan : A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy at Lincoln University

Abstract

Common leopard (Panthera pardus Linnaeus, 1758) populations are in serious decline throughout the range of the species. The leopard is considered a vulnerable species globally and is critically endangered in Pakistan, although there is little scientific information available from this area. The leopard shows morphological and genetic variation across its species range, which has resulted in the classification of nine different subspecies globally. Despite extensive research to clarify its genetic structure across the geographic range, the leopard in South Asia, particularly in Pakistan, has had very little sampling carried out, resulting in a limited understanding of the local subspecies in this region. The knowledge gap of the leopard’s genetic structure and its current geographical distribution has impeded the conservation of leopards in Pakistan. This study was carried out between 2016-2019 to better understand the species status, ecology, and the conservation of leopards in northern Pakistan. We investigated the presence, distribution and abundance of leopards in northern Pakistan. Leopard presence was confirmed in the Swat, Dir and Margalla Hills regions, despite local wildlife departments considering them extinct in these areas.Leopard abundance in Ayubia National Park, the Guzara Forest, and the Murree Forest Divisions were assessed via camera-trapping and track surveys. Camera-trapping identified 18 individual leopards (eleven males and seven females). The estimated leopard density from the capture-recapture analysis was 9.5 individuals/100 km², in 2017, and 4.5 individuals/100 km², in 2018. The Pakistani leopard subspecies status was confirmed using mitochondrial NADH-5 gene sequence variation. Three distinct haplotypes were identified: haplotype A, from 23 samples, was identical to two sequences previously identified as Panthera pardus fusca (Accession number: AY035274.1) and P. p. orientalis (Accession number: HQ185550.1); haplotype B, from eleven samples, had identical sequences to P. p. saxicolor; and haplotype C, from a single Pakistani sample, was not the same as any previously identified haplotype. Haplotype diversity among the Pakistani samples was based on three segregation sites with nucleotide variations ranging between 0.003 and 0.006 (the average numbers of nucleotide differences per site). Leopard haplotypes were found in sympatry in northern Pakistan. Morphological traits were used in 3D geometric morphometrics to characterise variations in leopard skulls, particularly with regard to subspecies status. Procrustes shape analysis indicated that variation among individual skulls, crania, and mandibles were not determined by gender, diet or collection location. Multivariate analysis confirmed that gender (P = 0.6) and location (P = 0.6) did not account for any morphological differences. We also observed patterns with a slight variation at the tip of the coronoid process on mandibles, after 3D morphing and species averaging by combining the two surfaces using IDAV landmark. This variation did not match the putative subspecies. This study is a useful addition to knowledge about leopard distributions and status in a region (Pakistan) with little current data. Pakistan hosts a contact zone for subspecies P. p. fusca (near threatened) and P. p. saxicolor (endangered). There is, potentially, an undescribed leopard population in the region. The overlapping distribution of these two subspecies provides the impetus to extend full protection to leopards beyond the limits of regional parks and reserves, to the whole Pakistani territory.