Input-output models for projecting & planning the economy

Abstract

To analyse the future place of agriculture in the economy (especially in New Zealand conditions), it is necessary to take account of the close inter-relationships with other sectors and of the future development of those sectors. We have therefore chosen to approach the problem by developing interindustry models embracing the whole economy and to use these to formulate projections of the economy in 1975 under alternative assumptions about agricultural growth. The research work in this field has been proceeding for some time now and a large mass of results has accumulated and is being prepared for publication during 1968 in a series under the general heading of "Studies in the Structural Development of the New Zealand Economy". The present paper is an introduction to this series and sets out, in broad terms, the methodology adopted; the detailed steps involved in building up a quantitative analysis of the intersectoral relationships involving the primary sector; and a coherent projection of the economy in 1975 which can be used to assist in decisions relating to economic policy and economic planning with respect to the structure of the economy.