Economic analysis of some factors affecting production of Braeburn apples on M9 rootstocks: A dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Horticultural Science (Honours)

Abstract

The intensive apple planting system is relatively new to New Zealand and little information is available to growers on which they can base management decisions. However, a Lincoln University trial at Littletree Orchard, Canterbury, has been monitoring Braeburn on M9 rootstock. The trial concentrated on two major management decisions - tree spacing and cropping regime ('crop on' - when the crop is left on the tree as early as the second year, or 'crop off' when commercial cropping starts in the third year). This dissertation is a description of the development of a computer model which uses the trial results, to predict the economic outcomes of these different management decisions in intensive Braeburn orchards, using M9 rootstock, in Canterbury. The model produces cashflows, and from these calculates the Net Present Value, Internal rate of Return, and Breakeven Point, while taking into account the above management decisions. Risk is incorporated into the model through the use of sensitivity analysis. Four scenarios of intensive Braeburn growing systems were tested by the model: 1.5m spacing and 'crop on'; 1.5m spacing and 'crop off'; 1.0m spacing and 'crop on'; 1.0m spacing and 'crop off'. The results calculated were influenced by high establishment costs, adjustments of yield data to account for frost, and yield estimates for Years 5-10. Therefore the effects of tree spacing and cropping regime are not conclusive. However, it appears that closer planting and removing the crop in Year 2 improves the economic outcome of Braebum on M9 rootstock