Brucellosis eradication: a description of a planning model

Abstract

Bovine brucellosis is a highly contagious disease causing fertility problems in cattle. The disease reduces productivity in beef and dairy industries and can be transmitted to humans. The presence of the disease may also jeopardise exports of beef and dairy products. While brucellosis eradication campaigns have been completed or are currently in progress in many developed countries, a significant level of infection continues to exist in many developing countries. In all eradication campaigns a test and slaughter procedure is required to identify and eliminate infected cattle. Procedures used to verify and validate the model are described, and sensitivity analysis is carried out for certain model parameters. The operation of the model is then illustrated using campaign data from northern New South Wales, Australia. Conclusions are drawn about the usefulness of the model as an aid to decision making in brucellosis eradication, and methods of adapting the model for campaigns outside Australia are discussed. Particular attention is given to the problems of adapting the model for use in developing countries.