Adaptation to climate change by determining grapevine cultivar differences using temperature-based phenology models

Abstract

Grapevine phenology is advancing with increased temperatures associated with climate change. This may result in higher fruit sugar concentrations at harvest and/or earlier compressed harvests and changes in the synchrony of sugar with other fruit metabolites. One adaptation strategy that growers may use to maintain typicity of wine style is to change cultivars. This approach may enable fruit to develop under temperature conditions similar to those typically associated with that wine style. We demonstrate that Grapevine Flowering Véraison (GFV) and the Grapevine Sugar Ripeness (GSR) models can be implemented as a means by which the suitability of alternative cultivars can be tested as an adaptation strategy to climate change. Previous viticulture temperature-based models were reviewed and compared with the GFV and GSR models. The results from the original GFV and GSR models were combined to evaluate the classification of the top 20 most represented cultivars. The GFV and GSR models were tested for three new historic and contrasting datasets: 31 cultivars in the VitAdapt collection, Bordeaux; Chardonnay, Champagne; and Sauvignon blanc, Marlborough. Errors of predictions were less than a week for flowering and véraison, and within 7-10 days for the time to relevant target sugar concentrations for these datasets. Future GFV and GSR projections for Chardonnay resulted in advance at a rate of one to two days per decade for flowering and véraison, 2 to 10 days per decade for the time to 170 g/L sugar concentration for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 respectively. Therefore, the GFV and GSR models are highly accurate and easy-to-use temperature-based phenological models for predicting flowering, véraison and time to target sugar concentrations when tested under new conditions. The models can be applied to characterise new cultivars, including assessing the thermal time to flowering, véraison and different sugar targets. They can be used to assess cultivar performance in winegrowing areas worldwide under current or future climate conditions. The classifications therefore enable growers and researchers to compare the phenology of cultivars in a region today and to consider adaptation options, either the selection of later ripening cultivars or choosing alternative sites in the context of climate change.