Peak phosphorus, demand trends and implications for the sustainable management of phosphorus in China

Abstract

An increasing number of studies have suggested that global phosphate rock (PR) extraction will reach a peak in the coming decades, with subsequent implications for food security. This paper focuses on peak phosphorus in China, which serves as an “early warning indicator” for phosphorus security. The results indicate that China's production of PR is likely to peak sometime between 2035 and 2045. This result was derived using Chinese data, which differs from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) data, upon which estimates are more commonly based. Drivers of Chinese phosphorus consumption were also identified, and trends in phosphate use from six developed countries were analysed to form an overall assessment of the current demand for phosphorus in China. This analysis indicates that the demand for Chinese PR has reached a plateau. Combining the forecasts of both extraction and demand, the study explores potential challenges for sustainable phosphorus management. The study concludes with a range of policies that may help ensure a sustainable supply of Chinese PR.