Making sense of risk perception: A qualitative study exploring the dynamics of risk perceptions on destination decision-making processes : A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy at Lincoln University

Abstract

Travel decisions are multi-layered dynamic processes. The choice of a destination is a fundamental part of these decision processes which has attracted considerable attention. During this process, tourists’ decision making and search behaviour concerning what destination they are going to visit are often influenced by perceived travel risks. This study explores the dynamics of risk perceptions along with Chinese outbound tourists’ destination decision-making processes under the influence of the online environment. It examines various risks perceived in the process of destination choice and, with the focus on the impact of the online environment, the dynamic adjustment of those risk perceptions over time. Also in focus is how different potential tourists mitigate and trade-off these perceived risks. To date, studies of the online environment in relation to destination decision making have concentrated on the influence of online information, including information overload and inconsistency, and the role of social media and media coverage. In order to track both risk-related feelings and behaviour through the whole decision process, this research was undertaken using in-depth qualitative interviews, and the decision process was tracked through the use of a longitudinal method. The results of this study confirmed that the perception of risk plays a crucial role in destination decisions, and a new dimension of risk perception was derived which incorporates interactions between factors within both destination perceptions and the online environment. It is worth noting that some traditional dimensions of risk perception receive a new meaning under the complexities of a decision involving the online environment. The mitigation and trade-off in risk perceptions was illustrated through a focus on the dynamic nature of the processes involved, namely adaptation, suppression, and action. A model was developed to demonstrate the dynamics of risk perception within the decision-making process. The explanation incorporates factors along personal, interpersonal, socio-cultural, and situational dimensions. Additionally, another significant finding of this research is the mediating effect of the recruitment of online travel companions between perceived risk and destination choice behaviour, which emerged unexpectedly. This moderating effect can be explained in three ways: enhancing the sense of security (lowered risk) of the chosen destination, increasing the sense of timesaving while choosing a particular destination, and decreasing the perception of social risk on the chosen destination. These findings enhance the understanding of risk perception management in an online context and reinforce the sociopsychological significance of risk perceptions. Further, dynamism and adjustment are a main thread which ties the findings together within an decision-making process. This helps to shed light on the potential perspective for generating further research. In summary, this study closely links risk perceptions with social aspects (e.g., social interaction, social presence, social trade-offs) especially within the online environment to add a dynamic and social understanding of risk perception. Importantly, this dynamic process occurs within specific cultural settings that influence and even shape how the dynamism unfolds. This study also uncovers the sometimes paradoxical relationships between online information/online companions and perceived risks (i.e., risk reduction strategies leading to new risks), which opens new paths for future research. Overall, this study highlights the importance of understanding the dynamic process by which individuals manage risk perceptions in online and broader sociocultural contexts.