Upstream vulnerabilities and non-linear cascading failures in tropical commodity chains: The case of Ghana's cocoa industry

Abstract

Disruptions in supply chains are inevitable. Hence, different approaches have been developed to assess the vulnerabilities posed by these disruptions. These approaches are either firm-centric or unidirectional, ignoring the exchange of feedback between actors at both ends of the chain, and often take a reactive stance. In this paper, we present a conceptual framework to examine upstream vulnerabilities and the resultant non-linear cascading failures in tropical commodity chains. We adopt a sequential multi-paradigm model that uses data from a CAQDAS as the grounding inputs for system dynamics modelling. We then applied the model to the cocoa value chain in Ghana to identify the intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of vulnerability in the chain. The framework enables visualization of the structure of food systems emerging from chain actors’ decisions. This offers chain actors and policymakers an anticipatory and practical outlook for assessing vulnerability in food systems and instigates deliberations on collaborative planning among stakeholders in the cocoa industry.