Land-use decision making framework – managing within aquifer assimilative capacity constraints

Abstract

Groundwater and landuse management decision-making processes are often informed by modelling approaches. When measurements are available, only plausible model parameter combinations that result in a match between model outputs and measured values are considered. Model prediction simulations are run with these plausible parameter combinations to assess the reliability of proposed management decisions. Model optimisation is used to develop optimal versions of those management decisions (Datta and Dhiman, 1996, and Feyen and Gorelick 2004). However the true “optimality” of these solutions is also dependent on the predictive reliability of the groundwater simulation model. To date predictive reliability, based on plausible model parameter combinations, have been ignored in decision making frameworks