Planning in New Zealand agriculture: Fact of fantasy

Abstract

Since the title of this conference is to be Planning in New Zealand Agriculture, I thought that I could perhaps start the ball rolling by giving you a few random, but I hope reasonably related, comments on aspects of the planning of agriculture in New Zealand. I think there have been many contradictions in our attempts at planning in New Zealand, and I want to look briefly at some of the aspects of our planning which have concerned me from time to time. The 'Fact or Fantasy' part of my title refers to the fact that I sometimes have doubts as to whether we have ever really seriously planned agriculture in New Zealand, whether we really know what planning is, or could be, or should be. The .terms "planning", or "economic planning", carry a connotation of the command economy of the Russian mould, and for this reason people in New Zealand are usually very careful to say that what we are doing is an exercise in indicative planning. Well, what is indicative planning? According to Arthur Lewis it is really a matter of forecasting. "Forecasts for the whole economy help all concerned to see the possibilities created by general expansion. The forecast cannot always provide full assurance of a general movement but if it is constructed co-cooperatively, with private and public decision makers consulted at all crucial stages, the very planning process may help to give investors confidence. When a macroeconomic forecast is made for this purpose, it is known as 'indicative planning'."