Predicting policy outcomes : public reaction to legislative change

Abstract

The aim of this paper is two-fold. First it sets out to explore tools for predicting policy outcomes. That is, when new policy is proposed, how can the decision-maker ascertain what the likely outcome of the policy will be.

The second aim of this paper is to clarify the issue of Maori participation in resource management decision-making. This issue is part of the wider problem of what the relationship between the Crown and Maori should be, given that Maori are indigenous to New Zealand, and that the Treaty of Waitangi was signed by the two parties in 1840.

A theoretical framework is used which equates the activities of a social movement to the opportunities the movement has within the political system. When this framework was applied to historic relations between Maori and the Crown, reality neatly mirrored theory. From 1987-90 the whole issue became more complex, and application of the theoretical framework was less certain.

In applying the framework prospectively, it was not possible to predict actual policy outcomes, but the analysis did allow for a broad picture of the policy environment to be painted, and for pivotal points within the system to be identified, such as the importance of the role of the Waitangi Tribunal, and the impact of devolving policy making power to regional government.

Problems with the application of the theory were: difficulties with dealing with a large number of variables, and difficulty with applying the framework within a changing policy system. It was concluded however, that this analysis adds a useful new angle to the current debate over the relationship between Maori and the Crown.